US Tariff Policy Pressure on Metal Prices, Spot Market Transactions Nearly Stalled [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

2025 January 24 SMM Tin Morning Brief: Recently, former US President Trump claimed that the US government is considering imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China starting February 1. This announcement immediately sparked concerns in the market about a potential escalation in trade tensions, which could significantly impact the price trends of metals such as tin. During yesterday's night session, SHFE tin prices showed a sideways consolidation trend without significant volatility. In the futures market, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract remained stable at 246,000 yuan/mt. However, in the spot market, due to the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, most upstream and downstream enterprises have already or are about to enter holiday mode, resulting in inactive spot trading. Regarding the premiums and discounts of domestic tin ingot brands, small-brand tin ingots were quoted at parity to premiums of 200 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2502 contract. Delivery brands were quoted at premiums of 300 to 800 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2502 contract. Notably, Yunnan tin brand quotations against the SHFE 2502 contract showed a larger premium range, reaching 1,000 to 1,100 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, imported tin brands' spot quotations were at discounts of 800 to 1,000 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2502 contract. As the week concludes, the spot market will also follow the holiday rhythm and enter a resting phase. Coupled with the suspension of logistics services, spot trading will essentially come to a halt. To meet post-holiday production needs, some enterprises have adopted a strategy of fixing prices before the holiday and picking up goods afterward. Based on the current market conditions and the impact of the holiday factors, SHFE tin prices are expected to fluctuate downward today. Market participants should closely monitor international trade developments and the post-holiday market recovery to make more informed investment decisions.